Heavy Rain Threat Likely for South Louisiana Through the Weekend
South Louisiana residents should be bracing for a threat of heavy rainfall and potentially severe storms over the next few days. Yes, it looks as if we are going to be heading into another extended period of wet weather with the potential for heavy tropical downpours at least through the beginning of next week.
Speaking of the tropics, there is a tropical entity that could figure into South Louisiana's forecast as we head into the weekend. But, as of now, most forecasters would suggest the system currently centered over the southern Yucatan Peninsula will most likely be a rainmaker and not much else as far as Louisiana is concerned.
In the meantime, an upper-level low-pressure system along with a surface low will provide enough instability in the atmosphere to keep rain chances elevated for the next several days. The Storm Prediction Center has placed almost all of southern Louisiana in the marginal risk zone for severe storms today.
While the threat of severe storms might not be that great there is a definite risk of localized street and flash flooding under some of the heavier showers or storms. It is believed that many of the storms that could form over the next few days could have the potential to drop as much as one to two inches of rain in an hour.
It's these massive tropical downpours that cause most of the problems on Louisiana roadways as the drainage systems are not built to move that much water in such a short period of time. We caution you to "turn around, don't drown" should you encounter high water on the roadway, chances are it will eventually drain away.
Rainfall forecasts suggest that one to three inches of rain will be the most likely scenario for most locales across the region. However, some forecast models are suggesting rainfall totals in excess of four inches between now and Monday. Again, the bigger issue is not how much rain will fall, it's how much rain will fall in what period of time that we need to be concerned with.
And in case you run out of things to be concerned about, some of the long-range tropical forecast models are showing activity, perhaps in the Gulf of Mexico within the next ten to fourteen days. Again, those are models and not official forecasts.
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