Hurricane Center Watching Potential Tropical Trouble Near Yucatan
The distance between Southern Louisiana cities and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico isn't that far if you're traveling by air or sea. That's why any tropical development or potential tropical development that takes place near the Yucatan is something that residents of New Orleans, Lafayette, New Iberia, Morgan City, and Lake Charles always pay attention to.
Currently, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a rather robust tropical wave that is far out in the Atlantic Ocean. That system is forecast to move westward toward the islands of the northern Caribbean Sea over the next few days.
In observing that system forecasters began to notice another disturbance showing up in some of the long-range tropical models. Those models suggested a potential trouble spot in the extreme western and northwestern Caribbean. As you can see on the graphic below from the National Hurricane Center the development area is hugging the coastline of Mexico, Belize, and Honduras.
The system in orange is the wave that shows the most likely signs of development while the Yucatan system is the one in yellow. The Hurricane Center gives the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next seven days. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles has really nice summation that we've included below.
There are a couple of things working against development in this area of the ocean and over the next seven to ten days which might mean any development in the western Caribbean could be much ado about nothing.
The geographic location of the forecast area is very near the coastline. That usually inhibits tropical development but not always. Perhaps the bigger threat to quell any tropical incursion into the Gulf of Mexico might be coming from Canada.
Over the next two weeks, forecasters with the National Weather Service are suggesting that a series of strong cold fronts will push across the Gulf South and the Gulf of Mexico. These systems, if the model guidance is correct, should push any system out of the Gulf or at least block that system from moving northward into the Gulf of Mexico.
Cold fronts also help cool the water in the Gulf of Mexico down. Warm water is a key factor in tropical development. While we do want you to know this system or potential system is there, as of now we see no reason to be overly concerned by it. If that changes you'll be the first to know if you check back with us or have your ALERTS setup on our station app
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