Hurricane Rafael – What Does Major Track Shift Mean for Louisiana?

Over the past 24 hours, Tropical Storm Rafael became Hurricane Rafael and is poised to move into the Gulf of Mexico later today. This has all of coastal Louisiana from Cameron in Cameron Parish to the west to Grand Isle and points further to the east on alert as forecasters determine the most likely path the storm system will take.

As of early this morning, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center were reporting the system had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and was expected to get stronger as it approached the southwestern coast of Cuba.

Hurricane Warnings have been posted for much of western Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings cover much of central Cuba and the Florida Keys. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center believe Rafael could strengthen to at least a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before landfall in Cuba.

The forecast track, as you can see in the graphic below from the National Hurricane Center, should bring the storm's center into the middle of the Gulf by Friday. You might also notice there has been a significant shift over the past few days that keeps Rafael further south and further west than originally thought.

The bad news is this brings the storm closer to Louisiana's coast. It also keeps the storm over water which would normally mean potential for further strengthening but this is November and conditions are much different in the Gulf of Mexico now than they might have been one or two months ago.

Forecasters are very confident that Rafael will weaken once it is over the central Gulf of Mexico. The system will encounter water temperatures that are decidedly cooler than the waters of the Caribbean Sea. The storm will also encounter significant wind shear in the upper atmosphere. The storm will also be affected by drier air over the northern Gulf. 

If the storm system ingests that drier air, as it is forecast to do. It should help weaken the storm system rapidly. In fact, the Official National Hurricane Center outlook calls for the storm to "fall apart" or lose its tropical characteristics late in the day on Sunday or sometime early Monday.

If the Hurricane Center's track forecast is on target that would put Rafael about 360 miles south southeast of Lafayette when it becomes "extratropical". We've indicated that distance on the map shown above.

Perhaps the most noticeable impacts of Rafael won't be noticed on shore this weekend. Those with beach plans or plans to be on the water in the Gulf of Mexico should expect rougher than usual conditions.

Case and point, Rip Current warnings have already been posted along the beaches of Lower Alabama and Florida for the next several days. We should expect similar conditions across Coastal Louisiana as well.

It would also be wise to check back with us as forecasters fine-tune the track of Rafael and are able to give a more accurate picture of the exact impacts from the storm that may or may not be felt in South Louisiana this weekend.