Why Louisiana Could See a Storm Before Hurricane Season Even Begins

LAFAYETTE, La. (KPEL News) - Louisiana residents are no strangers to intense storms, especially during hurricane season. But now, we're being warned about the potential for a tropical storm to develop in the Gulf of Mexico as early as late May, weeks before the official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.

READ MORE: Is Louisiana in the Path of Hyperactive 2025 Hurricane Season?

According to FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross, there is a broad area of low pressure that could form over Central America. That, in turn, could create favorable conditions for tropical development in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (or Gulf of America, depending on what you call it).

"There is consensus among the various computer model forecasts that a broad area of low pressure will develop from the Pacific across Central America to Colombia," Norcross said.

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Accuweather is also warning of the possibility of tropical development in the region, with the potential for a lot of moisture to be sent northward, including toward Louisiana.

"We're starting to get into that time of year where we need to keep an eye on the Caribbean," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva explained. "At the very least, a wetter pattern down across Central America and then up into the Western Caribbean is expected.”

️What Is the Central American Gyre and Why Does It Matter?

What's causing this potential tropical development? Experts point to a weather pattern far to our southwest called the Central American Gyre (CAG).

The CAG is a massive area of low pressure that usually draws in moisture from the Pacific Ocean. Historically, it has been responsible for spawning tropical storms and hurricanes in late spring and early fall.

• How It Forms: The CAG develops near Central America, with heavy rainfall, flooding, and potential landslides extending hundreds of miles.
• Why It’s Significant: This type of weather pattern could impact parts of South Louisiana, especially if it moves northward into the Gulf.

Hurricane Season Off to an Early Start?

Since 1851, 43 named storms have formed before June 1 in the Atlantic Basin, averaging about one preseason storm every four years, according to NOAA’s historical hurricane data.

The most recent early storm occurred in January 2023, when an unnamed subtropical storm was identified by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

2025 Hurricane Season Forecast: Above-Average Activity Expected

Accuweather's 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast issues a stark warning for the Gulf Coast, including Louisiana. Their forecast calls for:

• 13 to 18 named storms
• 7 to 10 hurricanes
• 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

And if the concerns over the CAG play out, and there is a possibility of a May storm forming, it could reinforce predictions of a busier-than-average season.

What This Means for Louisiana

While South Louisiana could see significant rainfall, coastal flooding, and the potential for high winds if a storm develops from the CAG, Fox Weather's Norcross cautioned that the likelihood of a major storm forming in May is still low.

"The GFS (American model) is an outlier in pulling an organized system north into the Caribbean and developing a tropical low in the Pacific," Norcross said. "We have seen this kind of over-eager development in the long-range time periods by the GFS many times, so it’s best to ignore it without any support from the conventional models or the new AI models."

️ How to Stay Prepared

• Download Local Weather Apps: Keep an eye on storm updates from the National Weather Service (Lake Charles) and Louisiana Emergency Management (GOHSEP).
• Review Your Hurricane Kit: Ensure you have enough non-perishable food, water, batteries, and first aid supplies for at least 72 hours.
• Stay Informed: Follow trusted local news sources for real-time updates and potential evacuation orders.

Stay Ready: Check out our Hurricane Preparedness Guide for essential tips and resources

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