Thursday’s Winter Weather Update – National Weather Service

(KMDL-FM) A huge swath of the United States, from eastern New Mexico and western Texas to the Carolinas and New England, is under the gun for a major winter storm. The question for Louisiana is "Will we be included?"

READ MORE: Louisiana Residents Urged to Prepare for Hard Freeze This Weekend

The short answer to that query is partially. For a more detailed answer, you need to understand the complexity of the forecast that the National Weather Service is trying to provide. The difference between freezing rain and just rain in Louisiana could be as little as 20 miles.

And that's why forecasters are having difficulty providing a more "concrete" outlook on what portions of the state can expect from the storm that's expected to create issues for the state beginning Saturday and lingering into Monday.

Where Will Snow and Ice Fall in Louisiana This Weekend?

Forecasters can say with a strong degree of confidence that the I-20 corridor will experience the worst of the winter weather. Accumulations of ice, sleet, and snow could be anywhere from two inches to six inches between Saturday afternoon and early Monday morning.

The National Weather Service Office in Shreveport published this graphic, which is very telling when it comes to just how devastating this particular storm could be. If you are in northern Louisiana this weekend, expect weather-related problems to be the rule and not the exception.

Will There Be Snow and Ice in Central and Southern Louisiana This Weekend?

The outlook for Central and Southern Louisiana is where the more difficult aspect of the weekend forecast lies. The "freezing line" and where it lands across Louisiana will determine exactly which parts of the state get ice and which parts of the state get just rain.

Earlier in the week, model projections suggested the freezing line would be closer to I-10. Recent model runs of both the GFS and the Euro weather models seem to suggest that the freezing line might not be as far south as projected. Recent runs suggest the freezing line might wind up between US 190 and LA Highway 28.

If you didn't study maps as a kid, basically, the updated thinking suggests the freezing line will fall somewhere between Opelousas and Alexandria. But where that freezing line eventually falls is the part of the forecast that meteorologists have the least confidence in.

Now that you have a better understanding of the latest thinking on where the frozen precipitation will fall, let's see if we can't answer your other question. "When will it start"?

When Will Ice, Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain Begin in Louisiana This Weekend?

In northern Louisiana, the weather will start to go downhill late Friday night and early Saturday morning. For Central Louisiana, you can expect a similar timetable, perhaps a little later in the afternoon. But the NWS forecast for the Alexandria area keeps the temperatures above freezing until late Saturday night.

READ MORE: What's the Coldest Temperature Ever Recorded in Louisiana?

For residents along the US 190/ I-10 corridor, your temperatures are forecast to stay well above freezing during the day on Saturday and will only drop below the freezing mark by early Sunday morning.

Will The Weather and Roads Be Safe For Mardi Gras Balls on Saturday Night?

Many of you have inquired about road conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday, as there are several Mardi Gras Balls in the area. As of now, based on current forecast observations, conditions are expected to deteriorate after midnight early Sunday. How long after midnight, we can't say for sure.

We should note that in Tuesday's forecast, the Weather Prediction Center had Lafayette's risk of minor ice accumulation at 40-50%. The WPC has lowered that risk rating to 20-30%. Forecast model guidance has shifted the worst of the weather northward.

We can tell you that we'll have a better understanding about that in Friday morning's update, and certainly the update that we provide to you on Saturday morning. I wouldn't cancel any Mardi Gras plans right now, but I would certainly keep a watchful eye on the forecast, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Best Way to Get Storm Information and Road Conditions in Louisiana This Weekend

If you don't have our station app, now would be a wonderful time to download it. I would suggest you authorize alerts for Breaking News, Weather, and Traffic. Those will be your hot button topics from Saturday afternoon through early Monday morning. 

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We should note that the forecast high temperature for the I-10 corridor calls for temperatures in the middle 30s, above freezing, for Sunday afternoon. This should help keep surface streets clear, but there could still be patches of ice on bridges and overpasses should any frozen precipitation actually manifest. See, we still aren't entirely sure on that aspect of the storm.

Pipe Busting Cold Temperatures In South Louisiana Next Week

It will be bitterly cold Sunday night into Monday morning, and that may be where Acadiana experiences the worst of the weather. You will want to take precautions to protect exposed pipes and plumbing, as the forecast low for Monday morning is currently listed at 18 degrees.