Rain Threat Increases as Kids Head Back to School in Acadiana
Parents hoping for a less chaotic first day of school across many school systems in Acadiana will have yet another variable to deal with over the next two days in the form of an increased threat of rain and storms. Granted the Storm Prediction Center is not forecasting an outbreak of severe weather but there will be a real threat of heavy downpours of rain just about the time school is letting out for the afternoon.
KATC Television Chief Meteorologist Rob Perillo explained the situation in his weather blog on the TV station website. In that report, Rob is suggesting that an influx of Gulf of Mexico Moisture will interact with an upper-level weather system located over southern Arkansas. The instability in the atmosphere will likely lead to an enhanced threat of rain across almost all of South Louisiana.
In the GRAF Model Solution Rob featured in his piece, it looks as if forecasters believe the better chances of heavy downpours will occur in the late afternoon/early evening hours. So today and Thursday won't be total washouts, but you should know that a rain threat is possible at any time during the school day.
One other threat that was noted was the potential for localized flash flooding and street flooding. Since many of the thunderstorms that form will be moving very slowly there is a potential for several inches of rain to fall over a specific area in a very short period of time. We all know what Lafayette looks like when that happens.
Rainfall models suggest that between now and Friday many areas in South Louisiana could see an inch to two inches of rain. Again, it will depend on where the heavier showers form and how long they stay over a given area.
Rain chances do diminish as we approach the weekend but they won't go away entirely. The good news with all the rain is that temperatures won't have a chance to get so hot.
And speaking of good news, the National Hurricane Center is now downgrading the probability that a tropical wave in the Atlantic will spin up into a tropical cyclone. Although that system remains under close scrutiny. Also, tropical forecast models suggest, that if the system does stay together and doesn't fizzle out, it will take a northerly turn well before it nears the US coastline.
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