Severe Storm Risk Returns to Louisiana – Weekend Could Be Worse

(KMDL-FM) The spring festival season is well underway across Louisiana. We've had Festival International in Lafayette and one weekend of Jazz Fest in New Orleans. Up this weekend? The second weekend of Jazz Fest and the Breaux Bridge Crawfish Festival. Unfortunately, Mother Nature and the threat of strong to severe storms will play a part in this week's festival planning.

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The threat of severe storms won't actually wait until the weekend. Portions of Louisiana, mainly the northern third of the state, have already been under the gun for strong storms last night, and they will be again today. That threat of stronger storms with potentially damaging conditions will slip southward and include almost the entire state by Wednesday.

How Much of Louisiana Could Be Affected By Severe Storms This Week?

For today, the Storm Prediction Center has the area generally north of US 190 in the crosshairs for strong storms. Although it does look as though much of the stronger weather will remain along and north of the I-20 corridor in the state today.

The graphic you see above is the SPC map for Wednesday's storm outlook. You can see that it basically covers the entire state. But just as we observed this past weekend, the storm threat will be higher, but the rain threat will be quite low.

How Much Rain Is Expected In Louisiana This Week?

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles has pinned a rain chance of 40% for late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. That appears to be our best chance for showers or storms during the middle of the week.

A threat of showers will remain across southern Louisiana during the day on Thursday, but Friday into Saturday is when the next round of "fireworks" is expected from Mother Nature.

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Rob Perillo, the Chief Meteorologist with KATC TV in Lafayette, has released model projections for rainfall across the I-10 corridor through Saturday night. If his model projections are even close to accurate, then we probably won't be as concerned about drought conditions as we once were, and the folks at the Breaux Bridge Crawfish Festival will have to utilize some of their "rain strategy".

That's Rob's Euro Rain Model above. You can see totals of about two inches of rainfall are expected in places like Lafayette, Breaux Bridge, Crowley, and Lake Charles. But the real surprise is what will come in behind the rain.

As the showers and storms move out of the area during the day on Saturday, much cooler conditions will filter into the area. Low temperatures on Sunday morning will be near 50 degrees, with Sunday's high temperature only forecast to reach 70.