Torrential Rains, Strong Storms For Louisiana Today

(KMDL-FM) Once again, much of Louisiana is under the gun for inclement weather over the weekend. The past two weekends have brought a similar forecast to Louisiana with one major difference. Those previous two weekends, the National Hurricane Center was involved in the monitoring process because our storm weather was compliments of a potential tropical storm system.

As you can see, the Hurricane Center is not watching anything in particular this morning, and that bodes well for Louisiana and the Gulf South for the next several days.

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Fortunately, neither of those systems, actually, it was the same system that looped around, developed into anything more than a rainmaker. And to be honest, most of the heavy rain that was forecast to fall from those systems never really materialized.

When Are Flooding Rains Likely in Louisiana This Weekend?

This weekend, we do face a similar scenario, but without any suggestion that the catalyst for our stormy weather could become the next named tropical system. And whether the weather system is tropical in nature or not, we'll still see a lot of similarities in the form of breezy conditions, frequent thunderstorms, and heavy downpours that drop a lot of rain over a short period of time.

Those "excessive rainfall events" are showing up as a concern to forecasters with the National Weather Service. They have placed all of southern Louisiana at risk for heavy downpours both today and Saturday. The concern is that rainfall rates will outperform municipal drainage systems, resulting in street flooding and ponding of water on roadways.

How Much Rain Will Fall in South Louisiana This Weekend?

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles has issued this information on just how much rain southern Louisiana might expect today and Saturday. As you can see in the graphics below, there are two scenarios. One is the most likely scenario for the total amount of rainfall. The other is a "worst-case" scenario. The differences in the graphics are because of different forecast model solutions.

Forecast guidance on when to expect the bulk of the heaviest rain does not narrow things down to a specific hour or hours. The best we can offer is that most of the heavier showers and storms with torrential rainfall will occur between the hours of noon and 8 pm. That should hold true for both today and Saturday.

If you do have outside plans or have excursions or plans for today and Saturday, your best chance to get those chores done "rain-free" will come between sunrise and Noon.  But we can't guarantee there won't be some early morning showers lingering along the coast at sunrise.