Tropical Cyclone Eta’s Latest Track Now Includes the Central Gulf
Watching the tropical cyclone that is Eta on satellite and radar scans this morning you wouldn't think it was much of a system. After nearly three days onshore, the once category 4 hurricane has been a prodigious rainmaker for several Central American countries. But Eta's new path is what is raising the tropical anxiety level across the Gulf South this morning.
Let's begin with the particulars of the system. Eta, now a tropical depression, was moving north at 8 mph away from the coast of Belize this morning. The system is forecast to track northeastward during the day today and Saturday. By Sunday the center of circulation of what forecasters believe will be a tropical storm should reach the southern coast of Cuba.
At that point, track guidance suggests another shift to the north toward the Florida Keys. Then track guidance suggests that the system will skate by Key West and move into the south central Gulf of Mexico. Which for hurricane weary Louisiana is quite a precarious position for that storm to be.
The tropical forecast models are in fairly good agreement that the storm will make it into the Gulf of Mexico. And, if the model guidance is correct, the system should stay well east of the Louisiana coastline. Although model guidance is widely spread over time many of the model solutions see Eta as an Appalachicola Florida or east of that city storm.
What should protect Acadiana and Louisiana from this particular system is an approaching cold front that is forecast to move into the area by midweek next week. This system should help steer Eta, in whatever shape it happens to be, away from Louisiana.
While that's good news for us it could result in watches and warnings along the west coast of Florida and should that happen. This could be the first season in the history of history in which every mile of Atlantic Basin coastline in these United States has fallen under a tropical weather watch or warning over the course of one season.
As always we remind you this is pure speculation on our part, although it is based on pretty good information. This is not an official forecast and should not be treated as such.
Yeah, Hurricane Season 2020 has been a "__________" you fill in the word, I don't want to offend but you probably know what I am thinking.