Tropical Storm Rafael: Tuesday’s Track Update & Storm Forecast

Louisiana finds itself precariously perched between two potentially potent weather systems this morning. There is Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean Sea. That weather system is looking more and more like it will be a player in Louisiana's weather forecast later in the week. And there is a strong cold front poised just to the west of Louisiana this morning. That system will have an effect on Louisiana's weather today.

The graphic above is from the Storm Prediction Center. That's the forecast arm of the National Weather Service that pinpoints and predicts severe weather outbreaks around the country. The SPC has much of Louisiana at a "marginal risk" for severe storms during the day today.

The area of concern bisects the state from southwest to northeast and while it might not look as if cities such as Shreveport, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans are not included they are close enough to remain weather-aware, especially this afternoon.

What Is The Latest on Tropical Storm Rafael?

Rafael is still a tropical storm. It is expected to pass just to the west of Jamaica during the day today. By early Wednesday morning as the system passes near the Cayman Islands it is forecast to reach hurricane status.

The storm is predicted to cross the island of Cuba and enter the southern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane late in the evening on Wednesday. From there, forecasters believe the path of the storm will be in a general northwest motion. This motion would carry Rafael out into the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.

Will Rafael Make Landfall in Louisiana?

It is certainly too early in the forecast period to confirm or deny the answer to that question. As of now, it does appear as though the system will be located just south of Louisiana's coast by early Sunday morning.

The caveat is this. Conditions in the northern Gulf of Mexico are not conducive for tropical systems to strengthen. In fact, most forecast models suggest that Rafael will encounter strong wind shear and cooler water temperatures the further north it goes.

The Official Hurricane Center Forecast calls for the system to weaken to tropical storm status by early Saturday morning and grow even weaker by Sunday morning. So, if Rafael does make landfall it appears as though it will be as a weak tropical storm or perhaps a tropical depression. 

That doesn't mean you should let your guard down. Tropical storms and tropical depressions can still generate a lot of rainfall and landfalling tropical systems almost always bring a threat of tornadoes too. Of course, all of this speculation might be a moot point if Rafael is blown off to the east or is totally torn apart by the hostile atmospheric conditions.