Exactly how strong and exactly where an area of broad low pressure currently centered off the coast of Belize will go are causing a lot of Louisiana residents to rethink their Memorial Day weekend plans.

As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center is still giving the system a 50% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone, most likely a depression, before the end of the week.

The forecast track of this system is very much up in the air. Right now strengthening is being curtailed by strong upper-level winds and the system's proximity to the Mexican coast. As it moves into the Gulf of Mexico conditions for further development will improve.

The European Model suggests the center of the system will move into the central Gulf and move closer to the Louisiana coastline near the mouth of the Mississippi River by Memorial Day. The GFS Model takes the system further to the east over Florida. The cone of uncertainty? Right now speculation is anywhere from the New Orleans area to Tampa Florida.

Just to be clear most of the heavy rain and thunderstorms are on the eastern side of the system. So if the center comes closer to New Orleans then the beaches of Alabama and Florida will be rather rainy this weekend. If the system slides off to the east near Tampa, then you'll want your sunblock and lots of it.

We suggest you check the weather before you head to your destination and have a backup plan of what to do if you find yourself locked in a condo with some antsy kids who are looking for something to do.


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