Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have been keeping a watchful eye south of Louisiana's coastline for the past several days. Granted, there appears to be no immediate threat for coastal communities such as Grand Isle, Holly Beach, and Cypremort Point, but there is still enough of the 2024 Hurricane Season to remain vigilant.

One of the areas of concern as the season moves into its final month is the western Caribbean Sea. Forecast models have been suggesting a potential tropical trouble spot would develop there for the past ten days or so. Now, the National Hurricane Center is beginning to "see" the potential trouble through the forecast models they use.

nhc.noaa.gov
nhc.noaa.gov
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The graphic above is from the National Hurricane Center. It shows the seven-day outlook for tropical development. You can see the area shaded in orange is the portion of the Caribbean Sea that forecasters are most concerned about. If that shaded area looks familiar, it could be because earlier this season that is where Hurricane Beryl was born.

cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
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That system eventually moved into the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall on the Upper Texas Coast. It also created a lot of chaos in the Greater Houston, Texas, area. Many families and businesses are still recovering from Beryl's damage.

Now, we are not suggesting that this system will follow Beryl's path. We aren't even suggesting that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone. What we are suggesting is that this area of disturbed weather could develop. The atmospheric conditions are conducive to further development and that means this system needs to be watched.

If the storm system does develop and earn a name it would be called Patty. It would be the sixteenth named storm of the season should that occur.

As forecasters are keeping an eye on the tropics to the south, we might also need to keep an eye peeled toward the north and west as we get closer to Halloween and the end of the week. It does look as if a strong cold front will be pushing through Louisiana by week's end.

Alexey Klementiev/ThinkStock
Alexey Klementiev/ThinkStock
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That should do two very beneficial things for the state. One, it should provide some much-needed rainfall. Two, it should help shield the Gulf of Mexico from any tropical intrusion from the Caribbean. Based on model guidance, that appears to be the scenario that is most likely.

This does bode well for the northern and western Gulf Coast, however it could mean more issues for Florida. Of course, only time will tell and we will continue to watch not only the tropics but any approaching cold fronts that might also bring inclement weather to the area this week and weekend.

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Gallery Credit: Canva

 

 

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