Hurricane Forecaster: ‘Formidable Storm’ in the Gulf Next Week

Much of Louisiana is dealing with some remnant moisture from our most recent November Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Rafael today. Some of the moisture kicked up across Louisiana by that now-defunct system is running head-on into an approaching cold front. That could lead to flooding rains and severe weather. There is a potential for both across the state today. 

And while today may present its own unique set of weather concerns perhaps those who live along the Gulf Coast will have even bigger concerns with yet another tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico by this time next week.

The reason for one and possibly two November tropical systems has to do with what a lot of you have been asking about, namely "When will it finally cool off". There has been a lack of cold fronts this fall and that has kept the waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean "in play" for tropical system development.

That's the latest update (above) from the National Hurricane Center. You can see they're still monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean. They have also given that system a significant chance, 90%, of strengthening into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days.

Based on model guidance there appears to be a lot of consistency in the thinking that a tropical system will not only move into the Gulf of Mexico but that system has the potential to strengthen into a storm of major consequence.

Depending on which model solution you choose to believe the storm system could do one of three things. It could continue sliding westward across the Caribbean and eventually make landfall in Central America. Or the system could be caught up in a frontal boundary and whisked off to the northeast over eastern Cuba.

A third scenario which has been showing up more and more in recent model runs suggests the system will strengthen and move into the southern Gulf of Mexico and then be swept off to the east affecting the western coast of Florida.

The concerning part about that third model solution is where the system enters the Gulf. Some models bring the system over the Yucatan Peninsula. That's due south of Louisiana y'all. The system, according to model guidance is projected to move northward as a "formidable storm". 

The model solutions that agree with this scenario do suggest that a cold front will move the storm away from Louisiana before it gets too close to the coast. But if the timing on that frontal passage changes, and it could, this might allow the storm to move closer to the northern Gulf Coast than originally thought.

The bottom line is don't sleep on "Sara". Sara would be the storm's name if and when it earns one. Each of the scenarios described above is plausible and neither of the three scenarios are fostering a lot of confidence among forecasters.

Our advice, deal with today's showers and storms. Enjoy the next few days of wonderful fall weather. Then over the weekend check back with us for the progress of what soon could be Sara. We do have time to watch and wait and the only thing guaranteed is that this forecast scenario will change a lot over the next seven days.