Maybe Mother Nature does keep on eye on the human calendar after all. Yesterday, June 1, was the first official day of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Right on cue, a tropical hotspot is being monitored for development in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center say this system has a fairly decent probability of spinning up into a tropical cyclone of some kind. The official Hurricane Center forecast puts that probability at 60% over the next five days.

One of the inhibiting factors in the development of this system could be its close proximity to the Mexican coast. This morning forecasters had the system centered in the Bay of Campeche. Most of us would observe that as the extreme southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

The track forecast suggests the system will push north northwest over the next several days. Most of the reliable tropical tracking models bring the system on shore somewhere in northeast Mexico. However, there is enough disparity in the model outcomes that should give us, along the northern Gulf coast, a reason to stay updated on this weather system over the next several days.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to fly into the system over the next several hours. The information they obtain will give meteorologists better information to fine-tune the forecast track and intensity of this developing system.