Louisiana Facing Severe Threat Today, Tropical Threat by Midweek

That state of Louisiana is about to become the meat in an atmospheric sandwich that even Mother Nature would have a tough time swallowing. Our cities in the northwestern part of the state, Shreveport, Bossier City, Minden, Winnfield, and others you have a threat of severe thunderstorms pushing into your neighborhood today.

For cities such as Monroe, Alexandria, Lake Charles, and Opelousas, your best threat of a severe thunderstorm will come during the day on Tuesday. And it does appear as though the southeastern part of the state will see its share of inclement weather as well but we mentioned a sandwich. So, we'll count the cold front moving in from the northwest as one slice of bread, meanwhile to the south in the Gulf of Mexico, there's our other "slice of bread".

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have been watching an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea for some time now. That system appears to be getting its act together and will most likely become a named storm later this morning. It would be named Rafael if it earns a name, by the way.

The graphic above is from the National Hurricane Center. It shows the projected path of what could become Rafael. From that graphic, you can see that Louisiana is right in the middle between the potential tropical cyclone and the approaching cold front. And while you might not think that's such a good scenario, it actually could work out to be.

The energy and "push" from the cold front will likely be enough to keep "Rafael" from growing too strong while in the Gulf of Mexico. While forecasters do anticipate the system will become a hurricane, they also are projecting strong wind shear and cooler water temperatures over the northern Gulf of Mexico will likely "take some of the wind out of Rafael's sails".  At least that's the thinking.

Please remember the above graphic is an illustration of model solutions. These are not official forecasts. Did you notice how the models all seem to stop right in the middle of the Gulf? This is an indication of how much the model solutions believe the cooler water and strong wind shear will affect the system.

There is still a lot of uncertainty with the forecast for the next several days. Not only are there legitimate concerns about the path of the potential tropical cyclone but the severe weather threat from the approaching cold front should not be taken lightly either.

Check back with us often for updates.