Louisiana Watching: Tropical System Could Form in Gulf This Week

Saturday's temperatures across Louisiana were a reminder that summer is still in full swing across the Gulf South. Football fans in Lafayette and Baton Rouge were subjected to heat indices in excess of 100 degrees or more as they watched Louisiana's Ragin' Cajuns and the LSU Tigers battle in games on Saturday. Both schools reported instances of fans needing treatment for heat-related illnesses. 

And while it might be late September with the leaves beginning to turn in other parts of the country it is right in the heart of "Louisiana Prime Time" for hurricanes. And while at least one respected forecaster has brazenly called the season "over" for Louisiana, there is still plenty of heat in the Gulf of Mexico's waters to spawn and support a tropical cyclone.

The graphic you see above is from the National Hurricane Center via the National Weather Service Office in Lake Charles. Based on that map it's pretty easy to see that the National Hurricane Center is cautiously watching the area south of Louisiana for potential tropical development over the next seven days. The keyword in the previous sentence is"potential".

As of now, the forecast includes a lot of speculation that a broad low pressure will form in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. That system should it form, is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by midweek. It is also expected to develop into at least a tropical depression. Many of the tropical forecast models suggest the system, should it form, will pack a more powerful punch than a typical tropical depression.

What is the Tropical Outlook for Louisiana Next Week?

It will certainly feel tropical with afternoon high temperatures reaching into the 90s and of course, there will be the obligatory chance of an afternoon or early evening shower beginning midweek across Louisiana's I-10 corridor. That's to be expected, but what about the unexpected? Namely, the potential tropical system being monitored in the Caribbean?

The Hurricane Center suggests that the system has a 70% probability of becoming at least a depression. As we mentioned many of the tropical models forecast something more. The bigger question is where this system might go if it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and grows stronger.

That graphic from the X account of MIke's Weather Page seems to suggest that a tropical cyclone will impact the northern Gulf Coast before week's end. Please remember that this is a model projection and should not be treated as an official forecast.

But even in that particular scenario, Louisiana appears to be spared the brunt of any landfalling tropical system. Should that scenario come to light, Louisiana would be on the western side or "good side" of the tropical system, should it, in fact, come to fruition.

Based on the official National Weather Service guidance it does appear as though forecasters believe a cold front will push into Louisiana midweek. While this won't create a drastic drop in temperatures it will be a few degrees cooler and perhaps even better, the frontal system could act as a "bulldozer" and shove any tropical system off to our east.

Subsequent model runs seem to support that hypothesis and it does appear as though any tropical system that might develop will be more of an issue for Florida than it will be for Louisiana. But again we caution, that these are model solutions and not official forecasts.

What Course of Action Should Louisiana Residents Take This Week?

Hydrate against the heat and keep an eye on your favorite forecaster or weather-related website. The reason for the vigilance is that not all of the models are in agreement as to what this system might do. Some of the model solutions don't even develop a tropical system at all.

Such is life in the Gulf South right? Louisiana Prime Time will be with us through at least mid-October and then the potential for tropical development in the Gulf drops off dramatically but not totally. We will continue to watch the tropics on your behalf, so do check back with us often.