Rain Biggest Threat for Louisiana from Tropical System
Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 will likely become a tropical cyclone sometime later today. That could happen as soon as the next advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The path of the storm, which is currently centered in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, suggests a landfall along the upper Mexican or extreme southern Texas coast.
Forecasts suggest the system will reach tropical storm status before it makes landfall. If it does it will earn the name Danielle. The previous storms of Hurricane Season 2022, Alex, Bonnie, and Colin, did not reach hurricane status.
For Louisiana, the "threat" from PTC 4 or perhaps Danielle won't be felt immediately for us we will feel the effects of this system later next week in the form of heavy tropical downpours and thunderstorms.
Forecasters believe a lot of the moisture connected with PTC 4 will move northward through Texas. That's great, they are in a serious drought and could use the water, just not all at once.
That moisture plume will then move eastward where a stalled frontal boundary or remnants of the frontal boundary will help to create more instability in the atmosphere and this should keep our rain chances higher than normal for late August.
As of now, it looks as if the heaviest rainfall totals will be found well north of the US 190 corridor and more into Central Louisiana and the I-20 corridor. However, several inches of rain at locations in South Louisiana can't be ruled out between now and late next week.
One more note from the tropics, The Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave that is rolling off the African Continent this weekend. The track of this system does bring it out into the Atlantic Ocean. As of now, the system poses no threat to any major land mass.
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