Severe Storms, Flooding Rains Likely in Louisiana This Week

Mother Nature must know it's Mardi Gras time in Louisiana. Why else would she be sending us a parade of storm systems that will roll across the state like so many parades are set to do in the weeks leading up to Fat Tuesday?

If you're scoring at home the National Weather Service is following not one, not two, but three storm systems in an atmospheric second-line across the nation. Those storm systems when they get to Louisiana could certainly "throw us something" but trust me, it's nothing that we want.

The big question most of you have been asking concerns wintry precipitation. That's media speak for sleet, snow, ice, and freezing rain. As of now, it does look as if Louisiana will not see another frost assault as we saw in January but the forecasts could be fine-tuned and perhaps some portions of the state might, the extreme northern parishes, see brush with a flurry or a flake.

What Is The Flooding Potential In Louisiana This Week?

The Weather Prediction Center has placed much of the state at risk for an excessive rain event on both Tuesday and Wednesday. An excessive rain event is what your grandmother would call a "gullywasher" or " a frog strangler". What? Your grandmother never used those terms? Oh, Mamaw said "forte pluie" or "grosse pluie" or if the Cajun cabin had a tin roof then maybe she'd say "pluie battante".

Regardless of what you call it or the actual definition of the terms being used, excessive rain means a rainfall rate that is faster than the drainage system of a given area can handle. That's why we get standing water in our streets. In Lafayette, Ambassador Caffery Parkway is notorious for becoming a tributary of the Vermilion River during a heavy rainstorm.

Where Will The Heaviest Rain Fall in Louisiana This Week?

The answer to that question will be determined by what day we are talking about. Here is what the Weather Prediction Center's excessive rain guidance looks like for Tuesday.

The prime focus for the heaviest rain will be along either side of I-20 across Louisiana's northern parishes. The risk across the I-20 corridor is slight, but there is a marginal risk, that's the green shading, that extends as far south as U.S. 190.

Usually, when you see this kind of prediction from the WPC several days in advance it's a pretty good indication that heavy rainfall will be a concern for the area. However, Tuesday will not be the only day that Louisiana residents will be "under the gun" for potential weather-related issues.

What Is Louisiana's Severe Weather Outlook This Week?

The Storm Prediction Center is the division of the National Weather Service that forecasts "big storms". This week the SPC is suggesting that Wednesday will be a bumpy day for Louisiana. Not only will the state be at risk for more excessive rainfall but there will be a severe weather component in the forecast as well.

As you can see from the graphic above, almost all of Louisiana will be at risk for severe storms on Wednesday. The good news is that the strong storms and rainfall in general should be moving out of the state during the day on Wednesday. 

Besides the rain and thunder, the other change in our weather that you will certainly notice will come during the day on Wednesday when temperatures begin to drop behind the storm system that is the catalyst for all the rain.

While today's highs in Lafayette and Lake Charles will reach into the 70s. The high on Thursday will be in the upper 50s or near 60 degrees. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 30s as we progress through the work week.

Looking ahead to the weekend, we can expect our next threat of significant rainfall and stormy weather to enter the picture during the day on Saturday ending on Sunday. Besides putting a damper on the weekend, this could disrupt the opening weekend of College Baseball across Louisiana by causing postponements or cancellations.