Severe Weather Threat in South Louisiana Today and Wednesday
For the past three weeks, the weather pattern in South Louisiana has been very similar. We would have a very nice weekend and then a pretty nice start to the workweek. Then on Tuesday, the forecast goes downhill and by mid-week, there is a severe weather threat.
Apparently, that's the pattern we are still in because that's exactly what we have gotten from Mother Nature over the past few days and the threat of storms will once again highlight the forecast for the middle of the week.
The Storm Prediction Center has now upped the potential threat of severe weather in South Louisiana by just a little bit. Yesterday forecasters had a small portion of southeastern and south-central Louisiana in the marginal risk zone for severe storms. Today, that threat has been upgraded to a slight risk of severe weather and the forecast area for that threat covers the southern half of the state.
As you can see from the graphic above the threat of strong storms will be prevalent through the cities of Lake Charles, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans today. As of now, the main threat from these thunderstorms appears to be gusty winds and small hail.
The tornadic threat is much smaller than the threat we experienced this past Saturday. During that round of storms, an EF-3 tornado touched down in St. Landry Parish killing one and injuring several others.
Today's rounds of storms will likely fire up with the heating of the day. Perhaps our most likely time to encounter strong storms or severe weather will come from mid-morning until about sunset. We will see things quiet down just a little overnight but we can expect the potential for more strong storms and heavy rain on Wednesday across much of South Louisiana.
In fact, looking at this graphic from KATC Television's Bradley Benoit it looks as if Wednesday may be a more active day for falling precipitation than today will be. And naturally anytime we have two days in a row where rain chances are above 50% there is a concern about how much rain could fall.
As you can see, almost all of us will be getting some kind of rainfall over the next 24 to 48 hours. Depending on where you live you could see a lot of rain. Right now model guidance is suggesting that southeastern Louisiana will like see upwards of four inches of rain or more. Meanwhile, in Acadiana and for most of southwest Louisiana we can expect anywhere from two to four inches of rainfall.
Meanwhile, as your watching the raindrops race down your windows you can contemplate these misguided ideas about this incredible state that we call home. Can you believe that people outside of Louisiana actually believe these things?
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