Weather Service Reveals Winter Outlook and Louisiana’s Snow Potential

(KMDL-FM) The National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center have released what they call their "Winter Outlook". The outlook is a long-range forecast that covers three months at a time. The latest release from the CPC includes the general weather outlook for November, December, and January. Let's face it, those are the winter months in Louisiana, and last winter we got walloped with snow.

Can you believe we had all of that snowfall along and even south of I-10? Yeah, that photo above gives you a great glimpse of what the Interstate looked like during the morning of the storm.

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It was certainly unexpected and, for a few hours, it was quite beautiful to look at. Then we all realized we had things to do and places to be. Fortunately, even that huge amount of snow didn't last long, and within a week, our temperatures had already rebounded to springlike conditions. Such is the weather in Louisiana.

What has to happen for it to Snow A Lot in Louisiana?

For a significant snowfall event in Louisiana, we need several ingredients. The first thing we need is for temperatures to be at or below the freezing level. If the snow is going to stick, temperatures will need to be well below freezing since the ground will hold warmth from the sun's radiation.

The next thing we need is falling moisture through those cold temperatures. Moisture is usually not a problem for Louisiana since we are sitting next to the Gulf, but sometimes it can be "too cold to snow". We put that in quotes because it's not actually the air temperature that would prevent snow; it's the fact that cold air does not hold as much moisture as warm air, so there is less moisture for making flakes when it's really cold.

What Is Louisiana's Snow Forecast For 2025/2026?

Here is how the National Weather Service predicts those two ingredients and how they might react over the next three months here in the Gulf South. The first map you see is the precipitation map. That would be the moisture that we need for snowfall.

Brown is not the color you want to see on the map if you're hoping for a White Christmas, Snowy New Year, or just a day off from school. It does look as if Louisiana's current "drought" will continue for the next several months. Things look particularly dry for the I-10 corridor, too. So, the outlook for enough moisture for snow is rather bleak.

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The next map we'll look at is the temperature map. Again, this is a three-month outlook, so it's very general in nature. But as you can see from the "warm-looking colors" across Louisiana and much of the Gulf South, the Weather Service isn't predicting a major cold weather outbreak between now and February.

Will It Snow in Louisiana This Winter?

Based on the long-range outlooks, you could certainly make a case that it won't. But remember, these outlooks are based on averages. If we happen to get below-average temperatures at the same time we get above-average precipitation, we could have a frozen precipitation event. But, based on the current thinking, I wouldn't go too far out on a limb or haul the sled to Moncus Park just yet.

One other weather note, since we are talking about major weather events. It does look as if Louisiana and the Gulf Coast avoided any major issues with hurricanes this year. The outlook for the remainder of the season, which only lasts until November 30th, does not suggest any tropical formation in the Gulf over the next two weeks, so that's some good news we can be thankful for this Thanksgiving.