TD 11 Appears to Pose No Threat to Gulf of Mexico

Yesterday afternoon Tropical Depression Eleven formed in the tropical Atlantic basin. It wasn't a surprise, forecasters had been watching the developing weather system for several days. Naturally, after the system has strengthened the next question is "where will it go".

The short answer for residents of the Gulf South is "not here". At least that's what the official track forecast for the system from the National Hurricane Center would lead you to believe. Their track forecast carries the storm on a track that should see it skirt the northeasternmost islands of the Caribbean.

That forecast track would put the system on the Atlantic side of Florida meaning very little concern for residents along the Gulf Coast. The latest tropical weather forecast models seem to be in good agreement with the solution obtained from the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters do believe that TD 11 will evolve into Tropical Storm Josephine. Yes, it will be another record-breaker if that system earns the name. It will be the earliest a "J" named storm has formed in history. The previous record was from 2005 when the "J" storm formed on August 22. That storm was soon followed by the "K" named storm, Katrina.

I think most of us know what happened with that one.

My hope is that this system will slide even further north of the islands and avoid a landfall all together. Should that happen the chances that the system will stay well out to sea will be even more likely. Let us hope that this will be the case should we get Josephine in our oceans over the next day or so.