Tropical Uncertainty, Severe Storms Both Looming for Louisiana

This past week in Louisiana something happened that has not happened in quite a while for folks in Lake Charles, Lafayette, Breaux Bridge, Mansura, and St. Martinville. It rained. In some places, it rained really hard and caught a lot of us off guard.

We spoke to more than a few folks who reported several inches of rain in their home rain gauges after Thursday's storms. And almost everyone of those reporters noted that the ground "soaked it all up".  It's good the area got the rainfall without the threat of severe storms. That won't likely be the case by midweek next week across most of Louisiana.

Severe Storms Possible in Louisiana By Midweek

The tropics will play a part or more accurately "could" play a part in where Louisiana's focus might be on Saturday, November 9th, My hope is that we'll be discussing LSU versus Alabama or Ragin' Cajuns homecoming festivities. But we could be talking about an approaching tropical system while we're cleaning up from a round of severe weather.

Currently the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting an area of severe storms and possible tornadoes to move across the Great Plains as the week progresses. By midweek this system is expected to bring showers and potentially strong to severe storms to portions of Louisiana. That forecast is being fine-tuned and will be updated over the weekend.

Will There Be A Tropical System in The Gulf in November?

If you trust the tropical forecast models the answer to that would be yes. The better questions are what kind or how strong of a tropical system. And, what is the anticipated track of this system?

The National Hurricane Center is giving an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean an 80% probability of becoming a tropical system. That's the red-shaded area you see in the graphic above. If it earns a name it would be called Rafael. Many of the forecast models suggest the system will become a tropical storm over the next few days as it moves northward toward the Gulf of Mexico.

But not all of the models are reaching that solution for what could become Rafael. The European Model suggests the system will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico and be held well to the south of Louisiana's coastline. The European solution also keeps the system active in the Bay of Campeche. Which could be troublesome even further down the line.

The Global Forecast System or GFS model suggests the system will lift northward out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. It will strengthen in the Gulf and by November 9th could be a significant tropical system south of New Orleans. The GFS solution also shows the system being "swept away and blown apart" as a strong cold front arrives in Louisiana at about the same time on Saturday.

Here's the disclaimer, model solutions are not an official forecast. Please use this information to better understand the different scenarios that are possible but use official information from the National Weather Service or accredited media when it comes to making decisions about the protection of life and property.

Louisiana's Weather Week Could Be Quite Busy

Depending on where you are in Louisiana you could have severe and strong thunderstorms, flash flooding wind damage, excessive rain, and the threat of tropical rainfall all before next Sunday.  So, in a nutshell, Tuesday and Wednesday threat of storms with a cold front, and next weekend keeping an eye on the tropics just in case.