Tropical Update – Watching The Gulf This Weekend
Compared to ten years ago this Hurricane Season has been extremely quiet. A decade ago we were all still reeling after Hurricane Rita rolled through South Louisiana. This year we are preparing for football and waiting on the first hint of gumbo weather.
Just because things have been quiet doesn't mean we shouldn't be watching the tropics. In fact, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather that is currently over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. This area of low pressure is expected to move north into the Gulf of Mexico and be a player in the South Louisiana forecast over the next few days.
Forecasters at the Hurricane Center are very pessimistic that this system will be anything other than a rain producer. However, anytime you have a system moving over the very warm waters of the central Gulf anything can happen.
The saving grace in this scenario is an upper level low pressure system over Southern Texas. This system will actually combine with the disturbance to create a very broad circulation instead of the tight spiral needed for tropical development. The upper level winds are not conducive for development either. This should keep any convection from forming around a center of circulation as well.
What this means for the Louisiana Coast from Cameron to Morgan City is an increase in the chance of showers Sunday and Monday. Then a return to the warm afternoons with a chance of showers by Tuesday.
If you were wondering about that gumbo weather, it looks like we might be getting our first real taste of it around October the 7th or 8th. If the long range forecast holds we can expect a cold front to push through the area around that time that will give us temperatures in the low 60 degree range in the morning and high temperatures that barely make 80 degrees.