For people who have lived along the Gulf Coast for more than a hurricane season or ten, they know the drill. Anytime there is an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico,  you pay attention to it. The reasoning is pretty simple. Take a look at the Gulf of Mexico.

cdn star nesdis noaa gov

It would be really difficult for a tropical system to form in that body of water and not affect a landmass in some way, shape, or form. Unfortunately for Louisiana, we know all too well what happens when areas of disturbed weather get over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. That's why despite being told not to be too concerned with a storm system in the Central Gulf this morning, many of us are still keeping a watchful eye toward the south.

nhc.noaa.gov

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center showed the main area of convection associated with this weather system almost due south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Forecasters with the Hurricane Center say conditions in the northern and central Gulf are a bit more conducive for the system to strengthen.

Over the past few days as the system moved out of the Caribbean, across the Yucatan, and into the Gulf upper-level winds have kept its development at bay. However, those upper-level winds are relaxing a bit and this has given forecasters with the Hurricane Center reason to adjust their forecast. The Hurricane Center now gives this system a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

nhc.noaa.gov

The track guidance on the storm system still pushes it to the east of Louisiana. Therefore interested along the Northern Gulf Coast from Alabama through the Florida panhandle should be on the lookout for tropical downpours as the system moves closer to shore later tonight and on Thursday.

The Hurricane Center is also suggesting that once the system moves over northern Florida and southern Georgia it could re-strengthen in the warm waters of the Atlantic just off the coast of South Carolina. That of course would be several days down the road should it happen.

weather.gov/lch

Meanwhile across south-central and southwestern Louisiana today, skies will be mostly clear and temperatures will be seasonable. That means afternoon high temperatures will be in the low 90s and overnight low temperatures in the lower 70s.

Meanwhile, residents of southern Louisiana will get a bit of a break from at least the oppressive humidity late tomorrow when a September cold front will push through the area. This system won't kick off too many showers, but it will bring lower humidity levels to the area and much cooler morning temperatures to the region by Friday morning.

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