Beryl Peril? Saturday Update Confirms Louisiana Concerns

The weather system known from Golden Meadow to White Lake as Hurricane, now Tropical Storm Beryl is in the Gulf of Mexico. The problem with any tropical system forming or moving into the Gulf of Mexico is this, it's gonna make a land fall somewhere but a lot of other people are going to feel the effects as well.

In the case of Beryl Louisiana appears to be on the "good side" of the "Cone of Uncertainty". Much like the tropical systems they help forecast the cones like the storms have "good sides" and "bad sides". The "good side" of a hurricane is usually the southwest quadrant while the "good side" of the cone is the outside.

If you haven't seen the most recent forecast and graphic cone, here it is from the National Hurricane Center.

It does appear as though the center of Beryl or the most likely the remnants of Beryl will move across northern Louisiana next week. The issue for all of Louisiana, at this point in the forecasts, is going to be rainfall.

How Much Rain Will Louisiana Get From Beryl?

The bulk of the rainfall, based on current forecast guidance suggests that East Texas will get the lion's share of the torrential deluge from Beryl. Tropical systems carry a lot of moisture with them which is why southwestern Louisiana will be in line for several inches of rain beginning later this weekend and into the middle of next week.

While rainfall totals might not seem "spectacular" in some areas of the state the issue might not be "how much" but more along the lines of "how much how quick". Tropical weather systems have a tendency to produce fast moving squalls and rain bands that can "train" over the same area producing localized flooding.

Or, the storms simply drop a lot of rain over a very short period of time overloading municipal storm drains. Here's the potential for flash flooding across Louisiana through the middle of next week.

Beryl Poses Rip Current Danger for Beach Goers Next Week

The beaches of the Gulf of Mexico, especially along the northern Gulf Coast will also be affected by Beryl. The storm is already creating wave action in the Gulf and that should increase as the storm moves further north and potentially grows stronger. The risk for beach goers from Louisiana to Florida will be rip currents. 

The Gulf will be quite "rowdy" even after Beryl has made landfall so be observant of beach warning flags and pay special attention to children and novice swimmers.

What to Watch For on Sunday with Beryl

The forecast track appears to be based on confident guidance so we don't expect the storm's path to move that far away from the current guidance. But, with tropical systems, a change in track by 50 or 100 miles can mean a world of difference.

If you adjust the the rainfall graphics that were featured earlier in this article and move "the data" 50 miles east then Louisiana's flooding risk and risk of torrential downpours and vigorous coastal flooding increases exponentially.

Besides any adjustment in track the intensity is the other uncertainty with Beryl as of early this Saturday morning. Many forecast models call for the system to become a Category One Hurricane before landfall. There are others that predict a rapid intensification cycle which might mean a Category 2 or Category 3 storm.

While the rapid intensification cycle appears unlikely, it might be something that needs to be considered when we revisit the tropical outlook at this time tomorrow. If you don't have our station app, please download it.

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