Beryl Sunday Update – Louisiana Flood Threat Looming for Workweek

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are of the opinion that Tropical Storm Beryl will once again achieve hurricane status in the next few hours. Also in the next 24 to 36 hours forecasters believe the storm's center of circulation will make landfall on the middle-Texas coast. The anticipated landfall is in the general vicinity of Matagorda Bay. As of the latest update from the Hurricane Center Beryl is forecast to cross the coast as a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Scale.

While the storm won't be nearly as dangerous as it was when it was a Category 5 storm ripping through the Caribbean Sea last week. It will pose some hazards for those close to the where the eye makes landfall. Here in Louisiana our concerns with Beryl will be less about wind and more about water.

Above is the current forecast graphic of Beryl's projected path. As you can see the storm's center is expected to pass just to the west of Houston Monday and into Tuesday. This position will create a coastal flooding situation for Louisiana's coastline for interests in Cameron Parish. It would be wise to surmise that coastal interests in Vermilion, Iberia, St. Mary and other Louisiana Parishes be cognizant of changing surf conditions. 

By the way, if you have friends or family or perhaps you will be spending time on a beach in Lower Alabama and the Florida Panhandle please be aware of the beach conditions there too. Distant hurricanes can kick up dangerous surf. The National Weather Service Office in Mobile has issued this graphic as a warning to bathers who are contemplating going in the water over the next few days.

How Much Rain Will Beryl Bring to Louisiana?

As of now the best forecasters can offer are generalized estimates of how much rain the storm might produce on land. The reason forecasters can be "specific" is because of the nature of tropical storms and the way rain bands form while spiraling out from the center of circulation.

Sometimes those rain bands can "train" over the same area for hours at a time and that creates a localized flooding event. Scenarios such as that are possible in storms beginning later today in southeastern Texas and later this evening across southwestern Louisiana.

The good news for Louisiana is that the forecast rainfall totals associated with Beryl have been scaled back quite a bit compared to Saturday's forecast. The bottom line is this. Most of coastal Louisiana will have breezy and rainy conditions from late Sunday through most of the day on Monday and into Tuesday as well.

By midweek conditions should return to a more seasonable pattern which will still include a decent threat of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon all the way through next weekend.

What Is Next After Beryl?

The next storm to earn a name will be called Debby. The good news is that as of this morning there doesn't appear to be any area of disturbed weather or tropical wave on the map that might lay claim to that name. The current NHC prognosis calls for no tropical development for the next seven days. That of course is subject to change and revision.