Long-Range Forecast Puts Hurricane In The Gulf Around Labor Day
I will start with the disclaimer. Long-range weather forecasts are not as accurate as you and I would like them to be. Especially when they are interpolated over a period of time longer than five days. Long-range tropical forecasts are even less accurate than regular forecasts when extended over five days too.
So, we've established in your mind that this is nothing imminent right? It's one model making one guess about something that's hard to forecast accurately. You can delay your trip to buy a generator until we have better data okay?
But still, as a weather geek, I find this prediction to be very bold and the forecast source has an uncanny knack for getting long-range weather forecasts right. To borrow a page from the comic books, my Spidey senses are tingling.
The forecast I am speaking of comes from the Old Farmers Almanac. They've been predicting the weather with a certain degree of accuracy for more than a century. This year in their long-range outlook for the Deep South includes "a hurricane threat" from September 1st through the 5th.
Your next question is probably, "Just how accurate is this forecast"? According to the publishers of the Old Farmers Almanac, they claim an 80% accuracy rate. I have to admit we always consult their forecasts when doing long-range planning for our outdoor events. And they appear to be correct in their prognostications more times than they are wrong.
Just for reference sake, NOAA claims 80% accuracy on their 10-day forecast. The Old Farmers Almanac outlook is prepared 18 months in advance. So, draw your own conclusion.
Do the weather guesser at the Old Farmers Almanac know something we don't? They sure seem too because I have experienced their accuracy first-hand. I just really hope they are totally off on this particular prognostication.