Peak Of Hurricane Season Is Saturday
The saying "it only takes one" is always in the back of our minds here in the Gulf South. One hurricane can make even a slow season one to remember. So far the Hurricane Season of 2016 has been rather quiet as far as land falling systems are concerned.
The biggest issue the state of Louisiana has seen has been from an unnamed tropical low that caused all of the flooding in August. That doesn't mean we've not kept our eyes open on anything that appears to be spinning in the tropical Atlantic or Caribbean this Summer.
If you're somewhat of a mathematician you might come to the conclusion that if we've seen eight named storms already in the first half of the season, we might just see eight more toward the end.
So we’re getting very close to the top of the mountain, if you will, it’s all downhill from that point forward but we still have to realize, we still have a half of a season out in front of us.
Is Keim really holding fast to mathematics or is he looking more at history in how the rest of this season will play out? As a weather professional it appears as if he is looking more at the past than the numbers.
I think the probability does drop off a little bit as the actual tracking tends to shift a little bit further toward the east and they become a little bit for of a Florida problem and an east coast problem the later in the season we go.
While that observance of tropical history is comforting for Louisiana residents we all remember Rita from 2005. That was a late September storm so to say we'd be off the hook after the peak of the season would just be wishful thinking. I know I will personally be wishing that until November 30th.