Tropical Threat in Gulf Elevated – What Louisiana Can Expect

[Updated 10:02 a.m. CDT] The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring Potential Tropical Storm 4. This is the new designation for the area of disturbed weather that the NHC has been keeping tabs on for the past week or so.

The Hurricane Center says the storm system is centered about 420 miles southeast of Key West, Florida. The system is moving to the west northwest at 16 mph and is forecast to exit the Florida Straits and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida Coast. Those warnings could be upgraded or expanded as the storm system intensifies or moves further to the west northwest. The graphic below is the Hurricane Center's projected path.

As of now the Hurricane Center forecast does not call for the storm system to reach hurricane strength. But that is subject to changed depending on the eventual path of the storm and how long its center of circulation will stay over water.

[Original Story]

The National Hurricane Center is describing an area of disturbed weather near the island of Hispaniola as a "well-defined tropical wave". It is certainly not a surprise that a tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea and threatening the Gulf of Mexico at this time of year. We are getting closer and closer to what folks around here call "Louisiana Primetime".

The graphic above indicates that we are about to enter the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Season. The singular "peak" of the season is generally thought of as being September 10th. And while forecasters have predicted a very busy tropical season so far we've only had three named storms.

Granted one of those named storms, Beryl, disrupted much of the Houston and Galveston area for weeks. In fact, I am not sure they've got the power back on for everyone following that storm. Hopefully, this area of disturbed weather will not bring similar consequences to an American city along the northern or eastern Gulf Coast. But that is looking more and more likely with each advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

The above graphic is from the NHC and their 0200 EDT advisory. As you can see the color of the shading has changed from orange to red. This suggests that the Hurricane Center believes tropical formation is very likely over the next seven days.

The probability of a tropical depression or tropical storm forming today or Saturday is about 50%. That jumps up to 80% by Sunday. And as of now, it looks as if the Florida Peninsula will bear the brunt of the storm system that could earn the name Debby over the weekend.

The forecast models seem to be in fairly good agreement about the general path the storm system will take over the next few days. There seems to be solid agreement that the system will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The current conundrum appears to be how far north will the system track.

Some models suggest a Florida Panhandle landfall in the vicinity of Panama City. Other model guidance suggests a landfall in Florida east of that location. Regardless, the storm system will create wind and water issues for any interests along the Gulf Coast even those well away from the storm's anticipated path.

Based on current guidance the impacts of what soon could be called Debby should be minimal in southwestern Louisiana. However, a potential landfall is still many days away and tropical forecasts have a tendency to change, a lot. So, check back with us over the weekend for the latest on the tropics.

The next official update from the National Hurricane Center will come at 0700 CDT or sooner should conditions warrant.