Tropical Troubles Looming Larger for Louisiana This Week

A few weeks back residents of Louisiana's I-10 corridor from Lake Charles through Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans were breathing a sigh of relief. The peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season had arrived and there wasn't a lot happening to be concerned about. 

Fast forward three weeks to now, and it's pretty easy to see the tropics have awakened with a vengeance. Residents of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and the Carolinas are still hurting from Hurricane Helene's landfall last week. By the way, if you'd like to help those folks out, follow this link.

What's Next After Hurricane Helene, Should Louisiana Be Concerned?

The short answers to those questions are as follows. What's next? Probably a lot, just look at the graphic below from the National Hurricane Center.

What you see on the map is a tropical storm, two tropical depressions, and two potential trouble spots in the tropics. Tropical Storm Isaac will soon dissipate over the colder waters of the North Atlantic. Joyce is a tropical depression now and will soon fade away too. Tropical Depression Twelve is a different story though. It's forecast to become a Major Hurricane by Thursday.

The good news about TD 12 or soon-to-be Tropical Storm Kirk is that it appears to be a "fish storm". That's a tropical cyclone that stays over the open water and doesn't affect land. Let's certainly hope that's the case. There is also another tropical wave you see noted on the NHC graphic, it's the yellow X. That system is also expected to strengthen and move away from the African continent this week.

Tropical System in the Gulf of Mexico To Start October?

Based on the information being relayed by the National Hurricane Center it does appear as though Louisiana's hurricane anxiety can once again bubble up to the forefront as we move into the tenth month of the year.

The graphic below is courtesy of the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles. You can see the area of concern is focused on the western Caribbean. It's in a very similar location as the place where Hurricane Helene got started.

The forecast from the NHC suggests the low-pressure area will move from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico by later this week. The probability of the system developing into a tropical cyclone is listed at 50% over the next seven days.

What Do The Spaghetti Models Say About Tropical Formation in the Gulf?

As of this morning the "spaghetti models" aren't saying anything about the area of disturbed weather. The tropical forecast models don't usually "kick in" until there is an actual storm system to track. However, other forecast models that offer model solutions for the Gulf of Mexico suggest that we keep a close eye on the Gulf this week.

The 00z run of the GFS Model does show a couple of things happening in the Gulf of Mexico. As you can see in the posting from "X" formerly Twitter, the model solution suggests another worst-case scenario for the west coast of Florida. Here is where we remind you that this is a model solution and not an official forecast.

The GFS Model run shows a lot of action in the Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days. Fortunately for interests in Louisiana, there doesn't appear to be anything "life-threatening" heading in our direction. But, that can change a lot over time.

What Should Coastal Louisiana Prepare for This Week?

Currently, the heat would be the most important aspect of our forecast for the first few days of October. By Thursday there will be a chance of showers entering the forecast, perhaps spurred by some of the Gulf moisture we've already referenced.

But as of now, it does look as if the week across Louisiana will be warm and humid with a threat of showers or thunderstorms from Thursday through at least Saturday.

And no, since we knew you'd ask, there doesn't appear to be a fall weather cold front arriving anytime soon as high temperatures will be close to 90 degrees each day between now and the middle of October.