Tropics Suddenly Active – Louisiana and Gulf Coast Be Advised

Usually when Halloween night rolls by in places like Lake Charles, Lafayette, Intracoastal City, Morgan City, Grand Isle, and New Orleans you can hear a collective sigh of relief. That's because the calendar has transitioned from October into November. And that means there are only 30 days left in the Official Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The problem with this line of thinking is that Mother Nature doesn't read our calendars nor does she care that we are quite weary of worrying about tropical storms and hurricanes. Nature is going to do what nature needs to do and apparently, there is still a lot of tropical heat that needs to be transferred northward.

Y'all are aware that heat transfer is the primary reason for these big storms, right? It's all part of nature seeking balance and when things get too hot in the tropics Mother Nature expels some of that heat toward the poles in the form of hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones.

The above graphic is from the National Hurricane Center. As you can see there are three distinct areas of concern. One of those is in the far North Atlantic and does not appear to be an issue for any land mass, at least anytime in the near future.

The other two areas of concern are already bringing showers and storms to some of the islands of the Caribbean. There is an area of disturbed weather over Puerto Rico. That system is forecast to move westward toward Hispaniola, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the next seven days. The probability of strengthening is 10% over the next week or so.

The graphic you see above is also from the National Hurricane Center but it includes the "area of uncertainty" for the weather systems that are being watched. You will notice the orange-shaded area in the southern Caribbean Sea. That area has been given a 60% chance of strengthening over the next seven days.

And even though it is officially November and the tropical season should be winding down, the tropical forecast models are developing solutions that could be very concerning for interests along the Gulf Coast.

Please note these are model solutions and not official forecasts. They are also very long-range model solutions, so the information's accuracy will most certainly be diminished. What we can glean from these models is the fact that there appears to be a strong possibility of a tropical entity in the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

The late Thursday (Central Daylight Time) run of the GFS Model suggests "something in the Gulf of Mexico" on or near November 7th. That same model solution also suggests a strong cold front will push through the Gulf South at about that same time.

If the cold front arrives on time, Louisiana and the northern Gulf Coast should not have any issues. If it is delayed or not as strong as projected, we could have an interesting first week of November.

Just for clarity here's what you need to know. There are no imminent tropical issues facing the Gulf of Mexico or Louisiana's coastline. The Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas of disturbed weather. Two of those areas could affect the Gulf of Mexico next week. There is still a lot of uncertainty in this forecast so check back often for updated information.