Tropical Formation In The Gulf Likely This Week
While the attention of much of the nation is focused on the very dangerous weather situation unfolding in the Carolinas and Virginia with Hurricane Florence. A lot of our local attention is focused south. As of this morning, we're looking way south, like Cozumel south, at what tropical weather forecasters would call a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.
This area of disturbed weather is forecast to slide to the northwest over the next several days. In that time period, the disorganized area of disturbed weather is most likely going to get organized as upper-level winds and atmospheric conditions become more favorable for tropical development.
By Thursday or Friday, this weather system should be somewhere in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Atmospheric conditions will be more favorable for development in that location and at that time. That's why the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 60% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone.
As of this moment, a tropical depression forming in the Gulf near the Texas Mexico border seems like the most likely scenario. Should that happen the system would really invigorate the flow of moisture into South Louisiana and create even better chances of rain for the weekend. Of course, this is all subject to change and the whims of the winds and Mother Nature.