Tropics Starting To Simmer With Two Potential Threats
The atmospheric phenomenon known as El Nino has been doing exactly what forecasters predicted it would do for the 2015 Tropical Season in the Atlantic Basin. The strong current of upper level winds caused by warmer than average temperatures in the Pacific have really kept the level of tropical activity to a minimum.
As we leave July and head into August we are really heading into the meat of the tropical season. August and September are historically the most active calendar months when it comes to tropical weather than any other months on the calendar. So, to see two areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic Basin on this last day of July is not really a surprise.
One area of disturbed weather is right along the U.S. East Coast. It's located just off the Carolinas and Virginia. The disturbance was once part of a frontal system that stalled out just offshore. It's not unusual for systems like that to spawn tropical weather but forecasters aren't giving this system much of a chance to get stronger.
The other area of disturbed weather is in the far east Atlantic very close to the Cape Verde Islands. This is the time of year when systems roll off the African Continent and gain new life over the warm tropical waters of the Atlantic. This system could get stronger over time. Right now most of the models are giving it a 10% chance to survive over the next few days. The further west it travels the more it encounters the unfavorable winds of El Nino and there is currently a large area of very dry air over the mid Atlantic. That will quell tropical formation as well.
So, two areas to watch and not much to watch within those two areas. Seems like a nice tropical outlook for the next couple of days.